Total War Research Institute

In Japan, beyond the soon-to-be-established Total War Research Institute, there are already organizations tasked with considering what should Japan do moving forward. One such organization is the [Cabinet] Planning Board run by bureaucrats.

Matsuoka's superior, Nobusuke Kishi, is involved with this board. He had long anticipated the resource shortages Matsuoka would inevitably encounter. Any competent bureaucrat in commerce or industry would likely reach the same conclusion.

However, Kishi saw this as an opportunity. After all, the Planning Board's ultimate goal was a planned economy. The more challenging resource procurement became, the more power would shift to the progressive bureaucrats driving these plans.

- ほうこうおんち

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On September 30, 1940, Imperial Ordinance No. 648 was enacted, marking the establishment of the "Total War Research Institute" directly under the control of the Prime Minister.

The institute consisted of young elite personnel selected from government agencies, the Army and Navy, and the private sector, with the purpose of providing education and training for a total war regime. To put it in simpler terms, its goal was: "To simulate what should be done if a full-scale war against the United States broke out."

Even if the simulation resulted in a "loss," the focus was on determining how long Japan could hold out, how to avoid catastrophic defeat, and what the enemy's strategies might be.

However, the United States ceased to exist. The targets for total war had to be revised accordingly. Thus, new scenarios were formulated, considering combinations of potential adversaries:

1. Against the Soviet Union

2. Against the British Empire

3. Against the German-Italian Axis

4. Against a British-Soviet alliance

5. Against a German-Italian-Soviet alliance

6. Against a German-Italian-Soviet-British coalition

"The European situation is extraordinarily complex."

This sentiment led even a Prime Minister to resign, unable to make sense of the shifting dynamics. Any combination of alliances seemed plausible.

Foreign Minister Matsuoka viewed the world in blocks: "East Asia," "America," "Europe," and "Russia."

This was not Matsuoka's idea alone. Kanji Ishiwara, a military officer who had been sidelined, expressed similar thoughts in his book On the World's Final War, published the day before the United States' demise.

In it, he argued: "The world will eventually consolidate into federations in Europe, the Soviet Union, East Asia, and North and South America. Ultimately, the royal path of the East will clash with the hegemonic path of the West, culminating in the final war."

While the idea of a "final war" could be set aside, such a worldview was shared by many. This perspective was likely influenced by the geopolitical concept of Lebensraum.

"Lebensraum" refers to the territory a nation requires for self-sufficiency, asserting that as national power grows, more resources are needed, necessitating territorial expansion. Based on this idea, Germany was expanding its territory eastward. For Germany, the expansion of Lebensraum was also ideologically framed as a means to protect the German race from stagnation and degeneration.

Japan, on the other hand, faced exclusion from the bloc economies established by the British and French colonial empires during the 1929 global economic crisis. This drove Japan's desire for an independent economic sphere. Japan sought to secure resources to sustain its industries and acquire enough population to serve as a market for its goods, encapsulated in the notion that "Manchuria and Mongolia are Japan's lifeline." Furthermore, Japan envisioned the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" to liberate Asia from distant powers like Britain and France and establish an Asian economic bloc. In the global shift toward bloc formation, Japan's survival depended on securing its own Lebensraum.

Eventually, the consolidated blocs would inevitably clash as they pursued further growth. To avoid defeat when that time came, it was essential to solidify one's own bloc.

The opposing perspective to this thinking would be "global integration" (globalism). However, by 1940, those openly advocating for such ideas were largely communists championing "world revolution." Even within communism, Stalin promoted the idea of "socialism in one country," leading to the expulsion of Trotsky, who advocated for simultaneous world revolutions. For most people at the time, the prevailing mindset was that one's own domain was the priority, rather than considering the world as a unified whole.

Now, the United States has disappeared.

This collapse upended the premise of Japan's bloc-based vision. In Germany's pursuit of Lebensraum, the absence of the United States merely meant they no longer had to worry about being flanked, so there was little need for a policy change. For Japan, however, it was as impactful as the Warring States period transforming into the Three Kingdoms. The strategy of exploiting conflicts elsewhere, like opportunistic looting during a house fire, no longer applied.

In a "triangular balance" situation—where if two players go to war, the third benefits, or if two form an alliance, they can overwhelm the third—each player must always monitor the actions of the others, avoiding reckless gambles that could lead to self-destruction. In this triangular balance, the critical challenge lies in preparing for the possibility of the other two players forming an alliance against you. The Total War Research Institute had to simulate scenarios where Japan's current ally, Germany, might ally with its rival, the Soviet Union. After all, in 1939—the year prior—Germany, despite having signed the Anti-Comintern Pact, also signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union. Every conceivable scenario must be considered.

Seijūrō Matsuoka participated in the Total War Research Institute as a representative of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. As a first-year participant, he conducted research until March 1942 (the end of the fiscal year). However, with the shifting premise, the burden on the first-year group increased significantly. If they could organize their findings effectively, it would ease the burden for subsequent groups, but failure would only pass the challenges down the line. As someone lacking expertise in military matters, Matsuoka focused on economic warfare.

His conclusion was clear: "At this rate, Japan will weaken and perish."

The core issue was the lack of oil, which Japan's industries depended on. Previously, oil was imported from the United States—not just crude oil, but refined petroleum products like aviation fuel, lubricants, and tetraethyl lead for aviation gasoline additives. Japan lacked the technology to produce high-quality petroleum products or the capability to manufacture the necessary refining equipment.

To address this, the options were:

- Discover domestic oilfields and develop indigenous technology.

- Seize oil resources from British colonies in Southeast Asia.

- Import oil from Britain or the Soviet Union as a substitute for the United States.

The first option would take far too long. Moreover, there were no known oilfields in the surrounding region. (The Daqing oilfield in Manchuria and natural gas reserves in Sakhalin were entirely unknown at the time, and Japan lacked the technology, expertise, and capital to discover or exploit them.)

The second option could secure oil in the short term, but developing the required technology would still take time. Moreover, it would likely provoke war with Britain. To avoid conflict with Britain while securing oilfields, it would be ideal if Britain surrendered to Germany. An alternative would be to ally with Germany and strike Britain from across the vast ocean. Germany could handle the British mainland while Japan could seize Singapore, Malaya, and India to cut off British resources—a seemingly clever move.

'However, there was also the possibility of Britain abruptly making peace with Germany. The idea of white nations uniting to oppose Asian powers was not implausible. If Britain offered Germany oil, Germany might shift allegiances.'

This scenario would necessitate planning for total war against the British Commonwealth. To determine how far Japan could fight, Matsuoka would need to consult the Army and Navy researchers at the Total War Research Institute.

The third option is the quickest but comes with a significant risk: it could turn Germany into an enemy. Since Germany cannot produce oil, it is not a viable supplier for Japan. This leaves two options: Britain, with oilfields in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, or the Soviet Union, with the Baku oilfields. Currently, Britain is at war with Germany, and the Soviet Union is a communist state that Hitler despises and a primary target of Germany's pursuit of Lebensraum. Given the inevitability of bloc conflicts or internal disputes within blocs, forming alliances with both Britain and the Soviet Union would be challenging. Aligning with one would likely risk antagonizing Germany.

The next step was to analyze potential wars shaped by oil dependencies. What economic strategies could unfold from there?

The harshest scenario would be Britain cutting off Japan's access to oil.

With the United States no longer an option, Japan would have no choice but to seek oil from the Soviet Union. However, the Soviet Union is untrustworthy, and transporting oil from Baku to the Far East would be costly. Combined with price-gouging, oil prices would surge, leading to a decline in Japan's industrial strength.

If relations with Germany soured, Japan would lose access to machine tools (mother machines) essential for manufacturing. For instance, Matsuoka is unaware, but the main guns of the massive warship launched last month—referred to as "Ship No. 1"—were crafted using German Wagner lathes. (These guns, officially reported as 16-inch in diameter for secrecy, are actually 18,1-inch.) Additionally, German companies like Daimler-Benz, Heinkel, and Junkers are crucial suppliers of aircraft engine technology, particularly liquid-cooled engines, which Japan hopes to import to improve its aviation capabilities. (Both Mitsubishi and Nakajima Aircraft relied on American Pratt & Whitney technology for engines, making the disappearance of the US a significant blow.)

The Soviet Union, by contrast, does not play a major role in Japan's trade. However, unlike Britain and Germany, it is geographically close—just across the sea from Hokkaidō, with a land border in Karafuto (Sakhalin). Friction is frequent, especially over fishing rights, with Japanese fishermen often arrested. Should a war break out and the Soviet Union invade from Siberia, it could cripple the economic activities in Manchuria, Japan's economic lifeline. Thus, military conflict cannot be separated from economic considerations.

'I see, the connections with Army Minister Tōjō and Foreign Minister Matsuoka are important.'

Matsuoka was grateful for the connections Deputy Minister Kishi facilitated with those key figures. Severing ties with Germany would hinder technological progress but would not be disastrous. Cutting ties with the Soviet Union, already a hostile relationship, could simply lead to war. But maintaining relations with Britain was of utmost importance—a conclusion unlikely to sit well with the Army. If the Army became displeased, it would soon reach the newspapers, and fiery nationalists might brand him a traitor. To avoid such risks, powerful backers were essential. Better yet, he needed to ensure his conclusions did not provoke discomfort in the first place. Achieving this required understanding the perspectives of others. Fortunately, at the institute, his task was only to conduct research; decisions on implementing policies rested with politicians and military leaders. If his findings were presented in a palatable way, they would be more likely accepted.

'I am grateful to the Deputy Minister's introduction, but he must have had his own agenda in mind.'

If Matsuoka gained Tōjō's favor, Kishi's reputation would also rise, allowing him to advance his policies through Matsuoka.

However, Matsuoka was grappling with a hard truth that few would want to hear, including himself: Regardless of alliances, Japan could no longer maintain the same economic and military power it once had when the United States was present. Neither purchasing from allies nor seizing resources through conquest could ensure access to high-grade petroleum products or industrial metals critical for Japan's industries.

'Someone will eventually realize this. How to make recommendations to create a commercial and industrial system based on this fact, without being complained about...'

The Total War Research Institute continued its studies of Japan's prospects under all conceivable circumstances. Yet, their analyses overlooked a crucial factor: The potential changes in food production due to climate change, and the resulting shifts in territories considered vital for survival, along with the wars these changes might provoke. They also failed to account for the severe environmental disruptions expected to strike Asia in the near future.

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I quickly uploaded up to Chapter 6 over the weekend. Since I'm also serializing Manned Spaceship and Nobunaga Takeda, updates will now follow a schedule of one chapter every three days.

Here's the rotation:

- Manned Spacecraft on the 5th, 8th, and 11th

- Nobunaga Takeda on the 6th, 9th, and 12th

- Deleting America on the 7th, 10th, and 13th

Once one of the series concludes, I'll adjust the update intervals accordingly.

Thank you for your continued support.

- ほうこうおんち