The European War Is Temporarily Suspended, But...

"By the way, what happened to America?"

"Maybe it got transported to another world or something."

"Poor thing."

"Yeah."

"The people in that other world are in for a rough time, with such a ridiculously powerful, racist military state showing up out of nowhere."

"Oh, that's what you meant."

Such was the conversation between two individuals.

- ほうこうおんち

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On September 26th, a conference was held in the Imperial Palace in Tokyo.

The Emperor opened the meeting with an address:

"The deletion of the United States is something I deeply regret. Innocent citizens have vanished into the unknown. It is truly pitiable. Let us all pray for their safety."

Following this solemn beginning, discussions turned to the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Germany, and Italy. Army representatives felt uneasy, having heard that Foreign Minister Matsuoka was hesitant about the alliance. The Navy, which had previously opposed the pact, also harbored some reservations. Yet, despite these apprehensions, the decision to conclude the Tripartite Pact was unanimously approved.

Later, Foreign Minister Matsuoka made a proposal.

"I wish to mediate peace between the United Kingdom and Germany and would like to suggest this idea to Ambassador Ott of Germany."

The Emperor, who had been quietly listening, then spoke.

"That is a commendable idea. If it can bring peace to the world, I fully support it."

This statement solidified the direction of the discussions. Even those who might have had reservations refrained from voicing objections, given the simultaneous approval of the pact.

In October, signing ceremonies took place at the Führer's Chancellery in Berlin and the Foreign Minister's Residence in Tokyo. In Tokyo, Foreign Minister Matsuoka conveyed his intentions to Ambassador Ott.

"This alliance is truly a cause for celebration. As Japan is both a friendly and allied nation, we would like to take on the role of mediating peace in the ongoing war with the United Kingdom."

Ambassador Ott, however, responded with bluster.

"No, our forces are progressing smoothly. Such mediation is unnecessary."

Around this time, reports from Japan's ambassadors in the UK and Germany had already reached Tokyo.

"Germany's Operation Sea Lion, the planned invasion of Britain, has been indefinitely postponed."

"Daytime bombing raids have been scaled back."

'Perhaps the Germans cannot be trusted. When it comes to information, the British provide more reliable intelligence.'

Such doubts about Germany, which Matsuoka had once set aside, began to resurface.

The signing ceremony and subsequent celebration at the Foreign Minister's Residence in Tokyo were attended by a certain embassy intelligence officer. However, this individual's true superior was not Ambassador Ott. His name was Richard Sorge.

Through the Comintern, information that Japan was proposing to mediate peace between Germany and Britain was already on its way to Moscow.

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Meanwhile, a scholar arrived in London despite the ongoing air raids.

The visitor was Vagn Walfrid Ekman, an oceanographer from neutral Sweden. Renowned for his research on Arctic ocean currents, Ekman was one of the leading scientists of his time, famous for proposing his theory of the "Ekman spiral."

Ekman brought with him a dire warning: "The disappearance of North America poses a catastrophic threat to Europe."

"The Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current, which originate from North America, have vanished. This disruption in Earth's heat circulation will likely plunge Europe into unprecedented cooling."

Initially, Ekman had presented his alarming theory to Hitler in Germany, but it was dismissed outright. Hitler, hailing from a landlocked region, believed that as long as there was sunlight, ocean currents would have no significant effect.

This dismissal was perhaps understandable. Research on ocean currents, westerly winds, and their relationship to climate was set to be presented by another scholar in September. Harald Sverdrup, a Norwegian oceanographer and director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, had been developing a theory on surface ocean circulation. However, Sverdrup disappeared along with North America before he could deliver his findings. Even so, rumors of Sverdrup's work had circulated among his peers, and the gist of his theory was known even before its formal publication.

"Climate is influenced by atmospheric air masses and the heat exchange between warm and cold ocean currents," the theory posited. At the time, however, the general public still believed that temperatures in the upper atmosphere were solely determined by the sun.

"That is not entirely wrong. However, water vapor from the oceans plays a critical role. The heat released when water vapor condenses—or conversely, when it cools and turns to snow—can significantly alter weather patterns."

The British were beginning to notice anomalies. The fishing grounds of Dogger Bank were experiencing an unprecedented decline in fish stocks. Large-scale investigations were impossible due to the presence of German submarines, but reports from Spain and Portugal indicated that fishing grounds had shifted significantly southward.

Moreover, it was unusually cold even in October.

Despite its high latitude, Europe had traditionally enjoyed relatively mild climates, thanks largely to warm ocean currents. For perspective, if Britain were placed in East Asia, it would align roughly with the latitude of Sakhalin Island. Germany was slightly north of Mongolia. Yet these regions were far warmer than their geographic positions would suggest, thanks to the influence of warm currents. This climatic sensitivity made maritime Britain highly attuned to such changes, whereas continental Germany, and by extension, the Soviet Union, remained largely indifferent. For the Soviets, a cold winter was simply the norm, and they regarded the drop in temperature as little more than "slightly colder than usual."

Meanwhile, the British, observing changes in plankton populations and fish behaviors, had already concluded that something was seriously amiss.

"So, what are your predictions for the future?"

Churchill and his cabinet gathered to hear Ekman's insights.

"The changes in ocean currents will have even greater impacts moving forward. Let me focus on the most relevant points. The North Equatorial Current, no longer striking the North American continent, now flows uninterrupted toward the Pacific, reaching as far as Singapore. This longer journey means it will absorb more solar heat, becoming warmer than ever. This warm current will then travel north past the Philippines, along Japan's coast, and into the Arctic Ocean. There, it will release heat and flow eastward along the edge of the Kamchatka Peninsula, circle around Greenland, and descend southward into the Atlantic. During this process, the absence of North America means the cooling period will lengthen, resulting in a much colder current. While existing ocean water is still in circulation, over time, water heated and cooled under this new system will begin to circulate along Europe's coasts."

The prediction was chilling. However, he offered a glimmer of hope.

"Thanks to the influence of warm westerly winds from the Pacific, temperatures along the Atlantic coast may be somewhat preserved. Britain, at least, will fare better than most."

"And what about the rest?"

"The rise in Pacific temperatures will push cold air masses over Europe, leading to widespread cooling."

"Explain that in more detail."

Cold air masses will form over the continent. Their movements north or south with the seasons will determine temperatures. In East Asia, the Ogasawara air mass from the Pacific will clash with the Yangtze air mass from China. As the Ogasawara air mass strengthens due to rising sea temperatures, it will push the Siberian cold air mass westward toward Europe. Europe, however, will still face strong, moist westerly winds blowing in from the Atlantic. The result? The cold air masses will cool the water vapor in Europe's interior, causing heavy snowfall.

"Did you present these predictions to Hitler?"

"I did. He dismissed them as absurd, even mocking me, asking if I knew where Siberia was. He couldn't believe that the Siberian cold air mass might extend into Europe."

"That's hard for us to grasp as well..."

"That's because you're looking at it through Mercator projections. Examine a globe instead. Russia is much narrower than it appears on Mercator maps. The Siberian air mass is vast and reaches as far as Eastern Europe."

"I see. That makes sense."

Indeed, Siberia's scale is massive, but its influence reaching Europe isn't impossible.

As for the Mediterranean region, the Azores High over North Africa remained unchanged. This meant the region from North Africa to the Mediterranean would stay hot. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, the Balkans, and Turkey were unlikely to experience significant climate shifts. The mild, dry Mediterranean climate would persist. British-controlled Egypt, however, would become increasingly crucial, both for its proximity and as a grain supplier. The Suez Canal, the route for ships carrying goods from British India, would remain Britain's lifeline.

Churchill expressed his gratitude to Ekman and instructed his cabinet to develop a food procurement plan.

This is no longer merely a war issue. As much as he detested playing into the Bavarian Corporal's hands, now is not the time for pride. He urged them to plan migration and food transport from colonies and Commonwealth nations such as India, Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and Africa. And they need to deal with the German U-boats in the Atlantic. It was the right move to ally with Japan to safeguard Hong Kong and Singapore. Now, they must accelerate efforts to broker peace with Germany through Japan.

"But we must first win the ongoing aerial battle. We cannot sue for peace while crying over bombings. Drive them out, make the United Kingdom impossible to underestimate, and then talk peace. At the very least, humiliate that fat Göring before we make terms."

Britain was quick to respond to the national crisis. Meanwhile, across the Great Northern Ocean, changes were also being noticed in Japan.

The saury (sanma) catch off the Sanriku coast was shockingly poor. This fish, a hallmark of Japan's autumn cuisine, was scarcely being caught.

Takashi Uda of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, a leading authority on tides and fishing grounds, investigated and made a crucial observation.

"The Kuroshio Current is much faster, and the tide lines have shifted further north."

Japan, too, was no stranger to ocean current research. How would Japan perceive this growing crisis, and how would it respond?

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Takashi Uda is a fictional character modeled after a real person with a similar role. While his research achievements are comparable, there are slight differences in the details.

The next update will be at 18:00.

- ほうこうおんち