Arctic Expedition and Tabletop Exercises Against the Soviet Union

Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact

- Date of Conclusion: April 13, 1941

- Effective Period: 5 years from the date of conclusion (until April 24, 1946)

- Automatic Renewal: The pact would be automatically extended for another 5 years unless either party gave notice of termination at least one year prior to the expiration of the current term.

- ほうこうおんち

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Matsuoka was at the Tokyo Imperial University, having been summoned due to his selection as a member of the Arctic Ocean expedition. For some reason, Mr. Sansom from the British Embassy was also present.

"What brings you here?"

"The same errand as you."

The Earthquake Research Institute of the Tokyo Imperial University was established on the Hongō campus in 1925, following the Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923. It has branches in Tsukuba, Mitaka, Komaba, and Asama, and is one of Japan's premier institutions for earthquake and disaster prevention research.

"These are the data from September 10 to 12, 1940."

The director handed over a film containing recorded data.

This was part of the seismic observation data collected before and after the disappearance of North America, officially requested by the British Embassy. Since the originals could not be handed over, they took photographs of the paper records and handed over the negatives.

"I confirm the receipt."

"Uh, and here is your copy, Matsuoka-san."

Matsuoka was to be dispatched to the Arctic. He had requested access to the data for analysis on-site, so two copies had been prepared. The data, packed in a waterproof bag suitable for sea transport, was to be handed over to European scientists joining him in the Arctic. The copy received by Sansom would be sent to his home country by ship. Both London and the Arctic scientists wanted to analyze the information as quickly as possible.

Matsuoka took the data and prepared to board the waiting car.

"May I join you?"

Sansom, with characteristic audacity, asked.

"You're quite bold. Why, exactly?"

"As I said, we're headed to the same destination. Next, you're picking up tidal data from the Central Meteorological Observatory, correct?"

'How does he know that?'

"So, let's ride together. Besides, there are some things I'd like to discuss. I could use the Embassy's car, but that might make you look suspicious, wouldn't it?"

'Is everything calculated with him...?'

While impressed by Britain's information-gathering prowess, Matsuoka ultimately allowed Sansom to ride along. With a car from the Ministry of Commerce, there were witnesses—the driver and Matsuoka's secretary—ensuring his innocence. Moreover, this arrangement would allow him to hear what Britain wanted to say and, in turn, ask his own questions.

"Well then, what's your purpose here?"

"Oh, nothing much. I merely wanted to head to the same place as you."

"Enough with the theatrics. I'm neither a diplomat nor a spy by trade. This kind of work is entirely outside my expertise."

Sansom shrugged with an exasperated look.

"You Japanese are too serious. We in the United Kingdom appreciate and trust such seriousness. However, I wish you would engage in more elegant conversations once in a while. It might even help protect you."

As he spoke, he pulled a package from his bag and handed it over.

"What's this?"

"A love letter."

"Hey! Don't mess with me!"

"Come now, why not take a look? Feel free to read it together with your secretary. Normally, peeking at someone else's love letters isn't something a gentleman would do, but he's rather shy."

The remark was irksome, but to avoid suspicions of British espionage, Matsuoka decided to let others review it too.

"This is............"

Inside was part of a report on the United Kingdom's overseas trade balance.

Of course, it showed a surplus, achieved by forcing colonies to buy at high prices and sell goods cheaply. Some sections could be cross-referenced with public records, while others contained confidential details. This allowed for cross-checking the conjectures made during studies at the Total War Research Institute, which had prepared analyses for a hypothetical war against Britain.

"Why are you giving this to me?"

"I already told you—it's a love letter. Love letters are sent as a gesture of courtship."

"You—!"

Matsuoka nearly burst out in anger but held himself back.

He wasn't being mocked.

Courtship?

Toward whom? Him? No, that's not it.

"Sir, who exactly is this love letter for? I'm just the postman. Isn't the real recipient the Japanese government?"

Sansom grinned.

"Exactly."

"Something tells me this will come with a hefty price tag... So, do you expect a reply to this courtship?"

"That's not something you can answer, is it?"

"True."

"Besides, you're not the only postman. We're not like those promiscuous French, who court everyone indiscriminately. But when we set our sights on someone, we're persistent in sending letters."

"Fair enough. Speaking of which, there's something I wanted to ask."

"What is it?"

"Why me? Why did you approach me? I have a guess, but I'd like to hear it."

Sansom made another exasperated look.

"If you already know, then that's your answer. It's not because of who you are as a person. Anyone in your current position would have sufficed."

"Thought so."

"But..."

"???"

"Once trust has been built with someone, we treat them sincerely. That's what it means to be a British gentleman. At times, our elegance may get on your nerves, but I ask for your understanding."

Indeed, the "love letter" approach was not limited to a single instance. Sansom's efforts to collect data from various sources were not solely aimed at gaining proximity to Matsuoka.

A special envoy, representing the gratitude of the United Kingdom for the conclusion of the Third Anglo-Japanese Alliance, was currently visiting Japan. This envoy, a hereditary noble with ties to the British royal family, was treated with great respect by Japan. The envoy would return home with the gathered documents as part of their mission.

Furthermore, this noble was invited to a private dinner with the Emperor. The Emperor, who had visited Britain during his time as Crown Prince, was eager to reminisce about old times. During this private meeting, the envoy discreetly handed over a personal letter from King George VI. The official state correspondence had already been presented at a formal occasion, accessible to figures such as Prime Minister Higashikuni and Army Minister Tōjō. However, the personal letter, in its private nature, was intended solely for the Emperor's eyes. Even under the strictest censorship policies, personal correspondence addressed to the Emperor was beyond the reach of the police.

The Emperor, who was also a scientist, turned pale as he read the detailed data presented in the letter. Having already sensed unusual weather patterns this year, the data confirmed his suspicions and left him shocked. The truly personal part of the letter read as follows:

"Dear Your Majesty, do you recall what my father, King George V, once said? That a monarch is destined to be lonely. If this information becomes public prematurely, it may throw your nation into chaos. Please keep it close to your heart until the time for a decision comes. When that time does come, I pray to God that my letter will assist you in making the right choice."

It became clear that Britain was actively sharing and seeking information about global-scale climate changes, including requests for data from Japan. However, these communications were cautiously worded, framed as: "We are investigating due to certain suspicions," and "This is what we are observing; how does it appear in your country?"

This letter marked the first time the Emperor saw an explicit account stating that "Europe is experiencing significant cooling, rendering war unsustainable," "A food crisis is likely to occur," "We cannot investigate Asia's conditions alone," and "Global-scale changes may be underway."

'I must be careful with my words, so as not to alarm my subjects unnecessarily. However, this is knowledge I cannot ignore. There are those who distrust Britain and place their faith solely in Germany. Such individuals will likely dismiss this as British deception meant to mislead our nation. Even though similar information has been provided in other forms, what I've discerned is Britain's sense of urgency. To know this information versus remaining ignorant of it significantly alters one's interpretation.'

As a scientist, the Emperor often reflected on a key principle.

"There is no such thing as a 'weed.' Each plant thrives in the environment that suits it."

However, to those uninterested in botany, the term "weed" is used to dismiss such plants entirely. Similarly, even when presented with the same information, differences in awareness lead to vastly different interpretations.

While the Emperor privately grappled with the knowledge of global anomalies and resolved to discreetly guide trusted subordinates toward necessary countermeasures, the Total War Research Institute was simultaneously presenting findings on "Japan's future path."

At this time, Matsuoka had temporarily left the institute to prepare for the Arctic expedition. This timing was fortunate for him, who was considered a protégé of Army Minister Tōjō, Foreign Minister Matsuoka (retained in office), and Deputy Minister Kishi. The Army's dissatisfaction with the outcome of the war against the Soviet Union could have placed Matsuoka in a difficult position otherwise.

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The hypothetical scenario of a war against the Soviet Union assumed a one-on-one confrontation, ignoring the ongoing German-Soviet conflict. It also did not account for the effects of climate warming in Manchuria or Siberia. The simulation unfolded as a combination of the Russo-Japanese War, the Siberian Intervention, and the Nomonhan Incident.

In the initial year, the Japanese Army made rapid advances. The Soviet Army retreated deep into Mongolia and Siberia. Despite the apparent success, each battle inflicted significant losses on the Japanese forces. By the second half of the year, Soviet troop strength began to increase substantially. Although Japanese forces exceeded 700.000 and continued to win battles, the strain on their resources became apparent.

Heavy attrition plagued Japan's air units. The outdated Type 97 fighters faced mounting losses. Pilot exhaustion and overwork led to increasing fatalities, and reinforcements could not keep up. On the other hand, Japanese forces consistently lost tank battles due to inferior tank performance compared to Soviet models, as well as industrial production and petroleum shortages, which prevented Japan from deploying large armored divisions. Japanese air superiority and the bravery of the ground troops temporarily offset these disadvantages. However, as Japan pushed deeper into Mongolia and Siberia, logistical challenges mounted. Deeper incursions led to severe mechanical wear and supply shortages. Soviet-aligned bandits frequently targeted Japanese supply lines.

By the 15th month of the campaign, Japan faced an insurmountable gap in manpower and equipment quality. Even in terms of technology, Japan could no longer compete. Soviet advancements in tanks, vehicles, and artillery outpaced Japan's production capabilities, with the disparity in steel production became a critical factor.

Japan began retreating. By the 18th month, the conflict shifted from Siberia and Mongolia back to Manchuria, where Japan found itself on the defensive. Despite being pushed back, Japan's stronghold fortresses in Manchuria, such as the Hutou Fortress and the Hailar Fortress, managed to halt Soviet advances. The conflict devolved into a war of attrition. Both sides suffered heavy casualties. Even though Japan had initially disrupted the Trans-Siberian Railway, it had been repaired by this stage, allowing the Soviets to transport massive reinforcements to the front.

After 10 months of attritional warfare, Japan's capacity to sustain the fight collapsed. Ammunition and gunpowder production could no longer meet the demand. Severe depletion of national finances due to the cost of raw material imports further crippled Japan's war effort. Despite being financially and materially drained, Japan persisted out of sheer determination.

Once the balance tipped, the Soviets rapidly seized control of Manchuria, advanced into China, and spread communism throughout the region. The Korean Peninsula also fell to Soviet forces. However, Japan's naval superiority allowed it to maintain control of Karafuto, the Kuril Islands, Hokkaidō, Tsushima, Taiwan, and Hainan Island. Japan was ultimately expelled from continental Asia, relying on the sea as a defensive barrier to protect its home islands.

The outcome left Japan's Army leadership extremely displeased.

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The next chapter will be updated at 24:00 (midnight on the 23rd).

- ほうこうおんち