The Sino-Japanese War Never Ended

The Tsushima Current is a branch of the Kuroshio Current. It flows into the Sea of Japan, primarily along the coasts of San'in and Hokuriku regions in Japan.

Due to the increased strength of the Kuroshio Current, the warm current flowing along the Japanese coast has reached further north. It now crosses the Sea of Japan along the Oshima Peninsula and reaches Manchuria. As a result, the Soviet Union's Primorsky Krai and Manchuria benefit from the warm current. Furthermore, the cold Liman Current, which flows southward along the coast of Eurasia from the Amur River, collides with the strengthened Tsushima Current in the north, creating a tidal front. The waters off the coast of the Soviet Far East have become a rich fishing ground.

However, cold-water fish species such as herring, cod, salmon, and mackerel, which were previously caught off the Korean Peninsula, have migrated northward, resulting in a decline in their catch.

- ほうこうおんち

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In 1938, Prime Minister Konoe made a statement that "The Imperial Government will no longer deal with the Kuomintang Government."

Following this, the Japanese government shifted its stance to focus on Wang Jingwei, who was at odds with Chiang Kai-shek, issuing a revised declaration of "Even if it is the Kuomintang Government, we will not reject its participation in the construction of a new order," and promised neighborly friendship, anti-communist cooperation, and economic collaboration.

In negotiations with the Wang Jingwei regime, there was even an agreement for the withdrawal of Japanese troops within two years. However, this agreement was absent from the third Konoe statement, reportedly due to the influence of Hotsumi Ozaki, one of Konoe's close advisors who was later arrested in the Sorge espionage case, in an attempt to prolong the Sino-Japanese War.

These developments left Chiang Kai-shek in a dire position. He was effectively deprived of the option to reconcile with Japan. First of all, his government was no longer recognized as a negotiating partner. Even if peace were achieved, his regime would not be acknowledged and would instead be subordinated to Wang Jingwei's government. On top of that, Japanese troops would not withdraw.

For Chiang's government in Chongqing, there was no alternative but to continue the war.

However, Chiang's forces suffered repeated defeats in 1941.

During the Battle of South Shanxi in May, 180.000 of Chiang's troops were defeated by 40.000 soldiers of the Japanese North China Area Army, suffering 40.000 deaths and 35.000 captured. In September, 500.000 troops of Chiang's 9th War Area were repelled by the Japanese 11th Army in the Changsha area. From May to August, Chongqing also endured air raids by Japanese forces. During these raids, Chiang's forces were powerless against Japanese aircraft.

Originally, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt had promised the arrival of volunteer forces to support Chiang. However, with the disappearance of North America, the advanced fighter planes, pilots, and support offices that were supposed to be sent were no longer available. With Britain also pivoting to a policy of abandoning support for China, supply routes were cut off.

It's founder, Colonel Chennault, had planned to travel to the United States in October 1940 to procure aircraft and pilots. However, due to communication delays, he left Chongqing on October 15, only to discover upon arrival in Hong Kong that North America had already vanished. Returning to Chongqing, Chennault found himself without resources. He had no choice but to train Chinese pilots, but they were no match for the highly skilled Japanese pilots, who were practically superhuman in capability.

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This is a digression and a metaphor.

If one were to compare the situation to the Three Kingdoms period, Japan would hold the territories of Wu and the eastern half of Wei. Luoyang, which was the capital during the Later Han, Wei, Northern Wei, and Tang dynasties, now serves as the provincial capital of Henan and a frontline defensive stronghold for Chiang Kai-shek's forces. While Japan's Chungyuan Operation defeated Chiang's troops north of Luoyang, the city itself has not yet fallen.

Wuhan, the Kuomintang Government's former capital, which Japan has since occupied, is the site of the historic Battle of Red Cliffs. Meanwhile Chongqing, Chiang Kai-shek's current capital, corresponds to Baidi Fortress in the Three Kingdoms era. Chiang's controlled region, Sichuan, is equivalent to the Kingdom of Shu. The contested region of Jingzhou between Wu and Shu is now the focus of conflict between Japan and Chiang Kai-shek's regime.

Unlike the Three Kingdoms era, however, the southern population has grown, and there are more fronts to defend. Changsha, whose name has appeared in historical records since the Chu-Han contention and the Three Kingdoms, has only become strategically significant since becoming the provincial capital of Hunan. To the north lies Xi'an, formerly Chang'an. Japan has not yet advanced into the region known as Guanzhong.

This historical backdrop is relevant because, while China's population center has shifted southward, its territorial configuration remains largely unchanged since the Three Kingdoms period. For Chiang Kai-shek, Chengdu in Shu is the end of the line. Retreating further west into Yunnan, Xinjiang, or Tibet would mean abandoning the heart of "China." Such regions are outside the traditional "Chinese" territory. Guerrilla warfare might be possible in these areas, but it wouldn't last long. Without aid from the US or Britain, Chiang's forces would face their final stand in Chengdu. Chongqing, then, is the last stronghold before that. Chiang has no room left to retreat. To maintain his legitimacy as the Chinese government, he cannot afford to yield further. Thus, his forces are planning a counteroffensive in Changsha.

The Japanese military is aware of these signs. However, their supply lines have recently become strained. Supplies had rarely been sufficient even before, partly due to Japan's economic limitations and partly because the frontlines were stretched too thin. This year's logistical issues, however, are different. The government is not sending supplies as it should. Extreme weather and damaged infrastructure have created significant challenges, leaving Japan in a precarious position. While the government has stopped short of ordering a retreat, it has imposed restrictions on operations that consume too many resources.

"If you want to proceed, you may do so at your own risk. However, even if you win, there will be no resupply for the foreseeable future. For now, we expect you to hold your position, fortify defenses, stockpile supplies, and endure until the next operation."

This is the directive from central command.

"What is the homeland even thinking? How can we win battles by simply fortifying our defenses? Chiang Kai-shek is preparing to attack us!"

"If this is the case, we should not have abandoned our positions after Operation Ka-Gō (the Changsha Campaign). We should have held our ground."

The Japanese army had to abandon its occupation of Changsha quickly because their supply lines could not sustain them. In this way, Japan's advance is not hindered by enemy resistance but by logistical limitations. In that sense, Japan's military resembles not the Wu army of the Three Kingdoms, but rather the forces of Xiang Yu during the Chu-Han contention.

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Separate from the China Expeditionary Army attacking mainland China, the Kwantung Army stationed in Manchuria welcomed the unusual weather. To them, it wasn't unusual but rather a divine blessing.

"This summer has been quite comfortable, hasn't it?"

"Did you hear? There's been a bumper crop of corn."

"Not just corn, there's a general abundance of crops."

"That's excellent news for stockpiling food."

The strengthened warm currents brought benefits to the Manchurian region. Additionally, due to the atmospheric conditions and Manchuria's inland location, there wasn't an excess of rainfall. While rainfall had increased compared to usual years, it was just the right amount for agriculture. Unlike North Africa, where abnormal humidity caused damage, Manchuria experienced no such issues. There were no outbreaks of crop diseases due to excess rain. Wheat, sorghum, soybeans, millet, sugar beets, and upland rice all yielded abundant harvests.

In July of this year, the Kwantung Army conducted a massive military exercise involving 740.000 personnel. This exercise, officially known as the Kwantung Army Special Maneuvers ("Kantōgun Tokushu Enshū", abbreviated as "Kantokuen"), was a comprehensive drill aimed at preparing for a potential conflict with the Soviet Union. The exercise mobilized tanks, air power, and large-scale support units, boosting confidence in their readiness for war against the Soviets. However, the homeland had placed restrictions on their plans. And it wasn't because of the Southern Campaign.

"It seems the homeland is also studying the prospect of an all-out war against the Soviet Union."

"Are they suggesting our recent exercises weren't enough?"

"Calm down. The exercises are our domain as military personnel. What they're focusing on is assessing the broader implications, such as what happens to the economy, diplomacy, domestic agriculture, and industry if we go to war with the Soviet Union."

"I see. So the homeland is getting serious. That's good to hear."

"Yes, officials from the General Affairs Bureau of Manchukuo are involved, as well as personnel from the Korean Governor-General's Office and the Jinan Special Agency."

"Even better."

"I heard this from Lieutenant Colonel Tsuji, who was recently reassigned to the General Staff..."

"Oh?"

"It seems that the more comfortable climate here in Manchuria is linked to global weather changes."

"Could this have something to do with the disappearance of North America? And if so, what does it mean for us?"

"We're not the only ones benefiting from it. Places like Vladivostok and Khabarovsk in Siberia might also be experiencing warmer weather, which means the Soviets could also be spared food shortages."

"Hmm, I can see that. But are we seriously suggesting that the disappearance of North America, an ocean away, is affecting even Manchuria? That's quite the distance."

"This summer has been unusually hot, hasn't it? And even the scientists seem skeptical. The homeland has experienced prolonged rains, extreme heat, and sudden downpours. Northern Japan has seen a bumper crop, while Kyūshū has suffered from floods and excessive heat which damaged the rice harvest. They're investigating whether these are one-off events or genuinely connected to North America's disappearance."

"How leisurely. How long will it take to get the results of that investigation?"

"Apparently, they won't wait for the results. They're planning to run simulated war games to study the outcomes of a full-scale war against the Soviet Union first and assess the results from there."

"Oh."

"One of the investigations includes checking whether the Arctic Ocean's ice is melting enough to allow for navigation. However, I don't think that would pose a problem."

"Why not?"

"It's simple. The Siberian regions along the Arctic Ocean don't have ports. They're worried about reinforcements from Europe using that route, but it's not as if the Soviets could build ports overnight."

"And even if they manage to send a fleet, like the Baltic Fleet during the Russo-Japanese War, we could simply crush them again. Even with our Navy's weaknesses, the Soviet fleet is no match for us. The Soviet fleet is hardly worth worrying about compared to the Americans."

"Agreed. Anyway, they're dispatching a research vessel to investigate the Arctic route, but they won't wait for its return. Instead, they'll run mock exercises with the information they already have."

"I hope the results are favorable."

"Me too. From what I've heard, simulations for a war against Britain showed overwhelming Japanese superiority, albeit with conditions."

"That's excellent news. But what are these conditions?"

"They say if we push as far as India, defeat is inevitable."

"That's no surprise. Our logistics wouldn't hold up."

"Still, I'm uneasy about this supposed superiority against Britain."

"Why? Do you want the Empire to lose?"

"Of course not. What worries me is that if the results show superiority against Britain but disadvantages against the Soviet Union, the pro-Southern Expansion faction will gain momentum."

"I see. If the current forces of 240.000 are deemed insufficient against the Soviet Union, they'll argue for reinforcements. But if the simulations favor the Southern Front, those reinforcements might be redirected south instead."

"Exactly. I believe we should concentrate our forces on the Soviet front."

"Agreed."

The Army's advance into the continent was now hindered by both natural disasters in the homeland and delays from waiting for the results of the homeland's studies on total war. There was no end to the war in sight. Already stalled, their situation further deteriorated. A swift end to the war in 1941 was nowhere in reach, and the conflict would drag on for some time.

They, too, could not retreat, stuck in a situation where they could only press forward. They could hardly laugh at the standoff between Hitler and Stalin in the German-Soviet War...

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The next chapter will be posted on 21:00.

- ほうこうおんち