Anglo-German Peace

*The UK is a country that provides accurate information to its citizens.

However, this approach only began after 1941, when the symbol of Britain, the battlecruiser Hood, was sunk by Germany. At that time, a false statement was issued claiming that the new battleship Prince of Wales remained intact.

This led to an outcry from the public: "How could the Hood be sunk while the new battleship did nothing?"

The backlash was so intense that the government could no longer cover up the truth. Then they admitted, "Actually, the Prince of Wales was heavily damaged, launched prematurely while still under repair, and incapable of combat."

This incident marked the point when the UK began disclosing inconvenient truths as well. However, the scenario described above had not yet occurred in 1940. At that time, you can consider the UK as still operating under a policy of "officially sanctioned propaganda," much like a wartime headquarters' announcements.

- ほうこうおんち

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Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe is at the peak of his success. With the signing of the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Germany, and Italy, he secured the support of both the Army and the people.

With the disappearance of the United States, there is no longer any opposition to the Tripartite Pact. In fact, Britain has requested Japan's mediation for a peace settlement. He became known to the world as a mediator between Britain and Germany, and he will likely be remembered in history. Later, Britain proposed a third Anglo-Japanese Alliance.

The Chinese Nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek has also become quieter. Guerrilla activities have decreased recently. It's all good news.

Later, this was said of him: "A naïve person who doesn't know the behind-the-scenes circumstances."

In truth, Britain was never a country that would give up on war just because the United States had disappeared. While part of it was driven by Churchill's fighting spirit, Britain is not a soft country that would say, "Let's make peace" just because its capital was bombed. Britain is far more ruthless, and they would not agree to peace until they had returned twice what was done to them. For Britain to turn to a country in the Far East, a country that they had recently criticized for invading China, was an extreme measure. If Konoe had known how it came to this, even as an aristocrat, he would have understood the gravity of the situation.

Moreover, the British public is just as unaware of the situation. Only those at the higher levels of the British government have predicted what is about to happen. And in order to suppress panic, they intend to remain silent until they are ready to take action.

"Has Churchill become afraid!?"

They calmly ignore such voices, continuing the wartime cabinet while searching for a way for Britain to survive.

To the public, they say: "We need to consider the economic and resource-related problems caused by the disappearance of the United States."

To the soldiers who fled from the German-occupied countries, they say: "With the disappearance of the United States, we will restructure our strategy."

They gather a group of experts, informing them of the truth under strict confidentiality, and asking them to come up with solutions.

Among these experts, there are some who, though not professional spies, sympathized with the Comintern and voluntarily became spies, passing information to the Soviet Union. While British intelligence is excellent, not everything can be prevented. The anxiety in Britain was relayed to Moscow.

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"Basically, Britain is dropping out of the war, and Germany will have a free hand."

The Soviet leadership, too, only views things from a military perspective.

Being a country surrounded by land, they don't feel the changes directly. After all, Soviet Russia is already cold to begin with. Even with the cold intensifying, it's just the usual "winter is cold" mindset. Additionally, as of November 1940, there haven't been significant changes that are obvious enough to notice. Earth's fluctuations occur in some places with sensitivity and in others more slowly, making continental countries less aware.

For this reason, they make an analysis that is, in a way, correct. Hitler in Germany, being another country surrounded by land, would ignore climate changes and attack the Soviet Union. The issue, however, is gathering information about when, from where, and how large the attack would be. The Soviet Union begins focusing more on collecting information about Germany than about Britain.

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Matsuoka from the Total War Research Institute proposed a plan to militarily seize British colonies and extract resources from them. He also submitted a draft for this plan.

Colonel Watanabe from the Army commented: "You come from a commercial background, I understand you want resources, but it's not so easy to occupy. We need to think carefully about how to acquire resources. The enemy, when retreating, might blow up oil fields and render them unusable for years."

While giving this lecture, he seemed to like the idea.

It seems the young staff officers of the Army were aware of it, too, and unofficially invited him.

"How about having a drink sometime? I'd love to hear your thoughts."

On the other hand, Navy Captain Matsuda said, "Indeed, it might be possible to take the Indochinese colonies. But you know, the British Navy is strong. I want you to think with a more realistic assumption that we'll face more difficulties. We don't intend to lose, but your plan is too optimistic."

Matsuoka, who had directly negotiated with British diplomats, presented this flawed plan as a cover. Even the members of the Total War Research Institute were unaware that Matsuoka, in his strategic thinking, had been considering Japan's strategy based on the premise that peace would be established between Britain and Germany, which would allow Japan to receive resources from Britain and export to the massive Indian market. This information had to be kept secret due to diplomatic confidentiality, and also because: "Britain, which created a bloc economy and excluded our country, would never open the Indian market. We can't have such naïve assumptions influencing our thinking."

If this were to be leaked, it would be problematic, and if it proved correct, they would ask, "How did you predict this?"

To avoid trouble, it's better to remain ignorant until the information becomes certain.

Even Matsuoka is not omniscient. There are things he doesn't know.

Behind Britain's panic, there were climate change predictions that caused the British government to react far more sensitively than expected. Even without continental leaders like Hitler or Stalin, in the face of such predictions, the response might be: "Impossible. The possibilities of science are metaphysical and just things that can be considered."

That's the more benign response.

In a worse case, one might be imprisoned or executed for causing public unrest. Hitler, who first heard of a Swedish scholar's opinion, politely ignored it. He didn't criticize the regime, nor did he make any loud statements, and most importantly, the scholar was a respected elder from a neutral country—so he couldn't just have him killed.

Matsuoka's mistake also lies in underestimating the navy. Certainly, due to his connections with Foreign Minister Matsuoka and Army Minister Tōjō, it is understandable that he would focus more on the army.

Matsuoka thinks, 'The navy is politically tone-deaf and doesn't understand economic matters.'

Indeed, the navy doesn't want to be involved in politics. Moreover, they came up with the Eight-Eight-Eight Fleet Plan, which ignored the national finances. However, rather than being politically tone-deaf, it's more accurate to say that the navy doesn't value political maneuvering. They dislike the army's tendency to influence the government or engage in politics to achieve their goals.

Meanwhile, someone else has been making contact with the navy. Dr. Uda, an oceanographer, reported abnormal ocean currents and requested the navy to conduct investigations.

For the Japanese navy, waterway surveys are crucial. Moreover, ocean current studies are important too. There are many areas around Japan, especially in nearby seas and inland seas, where ocean currents are swift. Since the late Edo period, Japan has experienced accidents involving shipwrecks due to waves. There are military concerns too, such as ensuring that sea mines are not carried away by currents or that submarines can navigate without obstruction.

The navy takes Dr. Uda's report seriously regarding the increased speed of the Kuroshio current. The Hydrographic Department immediately starts investigating. Given the wartime situation, it is essential to know the conditions of the seas around Japan in detail.

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Now, the Foreign Ministry official acting as the intermediary between Prime Minister Konoe and the peace talks between Britain and Germany is exhausted.

It is true that Britain wants peace. Germany also no longer wishes to continue the war with Britain. However, both sides refuse to yield on the terms of peace. The negotiations have broken down, leading to heated exchanges, and there is a momentum toward restarting the war. This is where the intermediary's job becomes difficult. Germany has promised that if negotiations fail, they will join the side of Japan.

Surprisingly, the atmosphere in Japan has shifted from "fighting Britain is inevitable" to the public being swayed by newspaper reports that emphasize "liberating Asia from Britain" and becoming more warlike.

Prime Minister Konoe only reproaches them, saying, "What on earth are you doing?"

The Foreign Ministry officials in Zurich, where the peace talks are taking place, were on the verge of tears.

Without any sympathy for their position, Britain and Germany were secretly sending envoys behind the scenes. They were discussing peace terms without Japan being involved.

As a result, the following compromise was reached:

- Britain will remain neutral in the war against the Soviet Union.

- No embargo will be placed on resources to Germany.

- Exports to the British Commonwealth countries will not be banned.

- The right to free navigation through the Suez Canal.

- Germany will have freedom of control north of Turkey.

With this, a sudden compromise was reached and the Zurich Peace Treaty was signed. Up until then, Germany had been demanding the cession of Egypt and Arabia, payment of reparations, and reduction of the Royal Navy's military capacity.

Meanwhile, Britain had been demanding withdrawal of troops from France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway; recognition of Poland's independence and liberation; territorial cessions of occupied lands to be negotiated individually; and a declaration of peace to prevent any further wars.

But suddenly, it ended up with: "Status quo maintained."

The Foreign Ministry officials sighed in relief, and Prime Minister Konoe triumphantly announced the result on the radio. The Japanese public, who had been war-hungry, were suddenly overjoyed: "Well done, Konoe!"

They waved the national flag and welcomed the diplomatic team with cheers when they returned.

"Such easy people to handle," Churchill muttered bitterly.

This wasn't due to their efforts. They had merely used Japan as a convenient tool to please both Germany and Britain. If it were only Japan's name involved, there would be no need for diplomats at all. And the Prime Minister hadn't done anything either.

"Well, the war is more or less over. Now, it's about our country's survival. What's happening with the oceanic research?" Churchill asked, and the intelligence service brought in some information.

"Japanese scientist Dr. Uda has made inquiries to Swedish scientist Dr. Ekman. He has provided data showing anomalies in the ocean currents, and hypothesizes that the rising sea temperatures near the equator are the cause, which he attributes to the disappearance of the United States."

Churchill thought for a moment. He may look down on Japan, but that's because he views Japan as a country that, despite its potential, fails to make use of it, being overly focused on principles and lacking cunning. However, he does not underestimate Japan's powerful navy or the fact that Japan was the only Asian member of the League of Nations Permanent Council.

After thinking for a while, he gave an order.

"Monitor what conclusions Japan's oceanic research reaches. If they come to the same conclusions we did, we'll share our information with them. They might be the only country capable of confronting this issue alongside the United Kingdom."

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The next chapter will be uploaded at 18:00.

- ほうこうおんち