Total War Research Institute's Study Begins

Tokyo to London: 9.565,73 km

Royal Navy Vessel Ranges

- Illustrious-class aircraft carrier: 20.000 km

- King George V-class battleship: 7.000 nautical miles (13.000 km)

- York-class heavy cruiser: 10.000 nautical miles (18.520 km)

- Town-class light cruiser: 5.500 nautical miles (10.200 km)

Imperial Japanese Navy Vessel Ranges

- Yamato-class battleship: 7.200 nautical miles (13.370 km)

- Nagato-class battleship: 5.500 nautical miles (10.186 km)

- Kongō-class battleship: 10.000 nautical miles (18.520 km)

- Akagi-class aircraft carrier: 8.200 nautical miles (15.186 km)

- Hiryū-class aircraft carrier: 10.250 nautical miles (18.983 km)

- Tone-class heavy cruiser: 8.000 nautical miles (14.816 km)

- Sendai-class light cruiser: 5.000 nautical miles (9.260 km)

Since both sides' ranges are for one-way travel, direct attacks would be challenging...

- ほうこうおんち

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The timeline rewinds to before the outbreak of the war between Germany and the Soviet Union.

It was April 1941 (Shōwa 16), the beginning of a new fiscal year in Japan. It was at this time that Japan's Total War Research officially commenced.

Matsuoka attended as a representative of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The first cohort consisted of 27 government officials (22 civilian officials and 5 military officers) and 8 civilians.

On April 7, Prince Kan'in Haruhito (of the Army War College) joined as a special research student.

The Total War Research Institute did not simply mimic the Army General Staff's strategy formulation efforts. Participants acted as heads of government ministries, business executives, or leaders of technological development. They calculated every conceivable scenario and analyzed the situation based on those figures. Initially, the plan was to spend time collecting such data and conduct tabletop exercises between July and August. However, these were meant to anticipate a war with the United States. At this point, the US had been "erased" and no longer existed. Consequently, the scope of the analysis expanded.

They planned three scenarios: A war with Britain, a war with the Soviet Union, and a war against a Britain-Soviet alliance.

The tabletop exercises were advanced: A war with Britain in June, a war with the Soviet Union in August, and a dual-front war against both in October.

A war with Germany was dismissed by the Cabinet.

"It's an impossible scenario, and we don't have the time to address it. Leave it out."

Indeed, the likelihood of a war with Germany in the near future was low. Germany held no territories near Japan, and the two countries were currently military allies. The Cabinet's judgment was that while a break with Britain was conceivable, a rupture with Germany was not.

"Now then, gentlemen, let us first consider a war with Britain," declared Director Jō Iimura.

Matsuoka began by calculating the number of Japanese merchant ships, their total tonnage, transportation capacity, and costs. This alone would take months. He also analyzed the trade balance. Among the researchers were Katsumi Maeda, Chief of the Investigation Section of the Ministry of Finance's Budget Bureau, and Seiji Terada, Director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's Silk Department. They provided input on financial conditions and silk production, Japan's main export.

British forces were concentrated in Europe, with fewer in Southeast Asia and India. If a war were to occur, it would likely take place from Southeast Asia to India. The Navy remarked, "We can't possibly stretch our resources as far as liberating Africa."

The Army concurred.

"Our limit would be Burma and India. If liberating India is feasible, it would be worthwhile, but going beyond that would be exceedingly difficult."

Resources lay in British-controlled territories like Malaya and Borneo. Securing these would make a prolonged war possible. The transportation of oil from these areas to Japan's mainland would be critical. Utilizing the bulk of Japan's merchant fleet would be deemed a worthwhile sacrifice.

"India is a factor to consider both in terms of whether to invade or not," someone remarked.

Another retorted, "Invade India? There's no way the supply lines could hold that far."

Indeed, if India were liberated, Japan could fully integrate Southeast Asia into its economic sphere and push the frontlines significantly westward. Conversely, if India remained under British control, Japan would face an endless struggle against Indian troops deployed by the British Empire. The war would drag on indefinitely. Preventing Indians from joining the British military was crucial.

"That can only be countered through political maneuvering and subterfuge."

"Can it be done?"

At this point, Matsuoka, aware of the economic challenges, interjected.

"Even if we acquire oil from Malaya and Brunei, it will barely cover domestic consumption. There's simply not enough to support an expeditionary force into India."

Unlike the bold rhetoric behind plans to "liberate Southeast Asia," careful bureaucratic calculations revealed the harsh reality. While a conflict with the Soviet Union wasn't yet considered, Japan still had to station forces in Manchukuo for defense. These troops required sustenance from Manchukuo and supplies from friendly nations like Thailand and French Indochina, under the administration of the Vichy government. Japan couldn't hoard oil domestically; it had to sell to these nations to secure foreign currency.

Japan's neighboring friendly nations had industries of their own, some involving Japanese enterprises. Ignoring these economic ties and allocating all oil to domestic use was unthinkable. In fact, some researchers had been dispatched from the Government-General of Korea's Industrial Bureau and the Manchukuo General Affairs Office. Japan's economy relied on trade with neighboring countries rather than functioning as a self-sufficient system.

...After all, if a single country could sustain itself economically, there would have been no need to claim "Manchuria is Japan's lifeline" or fight wars ostensibly to protect Japanese residents in China. With the disappearance of the United States, Japan needed new sources for securing iron and oil, as well as trading partners to buy its goods. However, waging war against Britain and its colonial territories—potential substitutes for the US—seemed inherently unsustainable.

The prevailing assumption was that war with Britain, whose homeland was far removed, would lead to victory if Southeast Asia were incorporated into Japan's economic zone. But against the British Raj, the war would likely devolve into a prolonged and grueling campaign. Then, new information arrived. It was a report from the special purpose vessel Sōya, which had been surveying the area where North America once existed since late February.

The report confirmed that the sea in that area was navigable. While the waters were shallow, only about 50 meters deep, there were no reefs or other obstacles. Both warships and submarines could traverse the area with ease. Japan and Britain now found themselves as neighbors across a vast ocean.

This was a reality that Churchill and the British leadership had likely recognized immediately. Initially, Japan had deliberately avoided factoring in this discovery during simulations, assuming British troop deployments would involve routes around Africa or from India to Southeast Asia. But with this revelation, someone murmured: "So, it is navigable after all..."

The room collectively groaned, realizing the complications this posed.

The researchers were sharp. While they had been simplifying variables in their simulations, they had anticipated this possibility. In fact, receiving confirmation as early as April was fortunate. The calculations were now to be redone. This task fell primarily to the Navy.

The Navy assumed that Britain would deploy a fleet to Singapore. In the most stringent scenario, it anticipated that two of the new King George V-class battleships would be stationed there. Against these formidable vessels, Japan's Kongō-class battleships from the 3rd Battleship Division would likely stand no chance. The Nagato-class battleships would need to be deployed. (Yamato-class ships had been launched but remained classified.) However, the British battleships were faster than the Nagato-class. If stationed there, they would make securing control of Southeast Asian waters exceedingly difficult.

That said, victory wasn't out of reach. With the United States no longer in the picture, Japan could pour all its resources into such a battle. Britain, relying on reinforcements, would likely station four or five older battleships around Ceylon, where a decisive fleet battle might eventually occur.

The situation would change drastically if Britain had additional adversaries to contend with or if the Royal Navy came across the ocean from the home islands to attack Japan. In that case, Japan would need to revert to its attritional strategy, much like the one designed against the US Navy in the past. While this might please the Navy, which had been preparing for such fleet engagements, it added complexity to the researchers' simulations. Assuming Britain directed its main fleet toward Japan, disregarding the German threat entirely, its fleet could reach Bermuda. Beyond that, however, the challenge arose: Could Britain cross the Atlantic, traverse the former North American waters, and cross the Pacific without significant resupply? Would they bring large-scale supply convoys? Or perhaps...

"Does the Foreign Ministry have any information?"

"General MacArthur in the Philippines is reportedly envisioning a new United States combining Hawaii and Cuba."

"What's the foreign policy stance of this new United States?"

"Still under investigation."

"Could they provide bases to Britain?"

"We must consider all possibilities—including Hawaii being used as a British base."

"Or worse, imagine the American fleet in Hawaii merging with the British fleet to launch an attack on Japan."

Naval officers like Captain Chiaki Matsuda, Rear Admiral Arata Oka, Lieutenant Commander Tadashi Shimura, and Engineer Lieutenant Commander Yoshio Takeichi debated intensely before collectively holding their heads in frustration.

Japan had accepted the 5:5:3 battleship ratio in the Washington Naval Treaty and later managed to secure a 10:10:7 ratio for auxiliary ships in the London Naval Treaty. While the loss of the US mainland had gutted American naval strength, it still surpassed France and Italy significantly. If it joined forces with Britain: Japan vs. Anglo-American Alliance = ~1:2

"An extremely dire situation."

"What if we neutralized the fleet in Hawaii first?"

"That assumes outright hostility. If they allied with Britain at the last moment, we'd have no countermeasures."

"Then we should seize Hawaii before any conflict."

"The Army won't cooperate! We don't have the manpower for such an operation."

"Are you willing to let Japan lose?"

"I said it's impossible. Besides, how large is the Hawaiian garrison, and how many transport ships would we need?"

"........."

"If we're to conquer Hawaii, the largest remaining American stronghold, show us a feasible plan."

"Now, now. Devising operations is not this institute's role. Our job is to analyze what would happen if such an operation were undertaken."

The Research Institute's director intervened, mediating between the nearly quarreling Navy and Army representatives.

"If submarines were stationed in both Hawaii and Singapore, Japan's merchant fleet..."

This raised a critical issue for Matsuoka and the Navy: the enemy's submarine capabilities, numbers, replenishment rates, and maintenance capacity, as well as Japan's ability to counter with submarine hunters and sea defense ships.

"A difficult research question indeed," muttered Shimura.

This scenario represented a "worst-case scenario." The plausibility of a fleet crossing the vast expanse of the Pacific, the former North American waters, and the Atlantic (informally called the "Great Northern Ocean") would now be analyzed in depth.

"We haven't studied a war with Britain enough to have sufficient information."

"Who could have predicted the disappearance of North America?"

Indeed, the researchers were essentially starting from scratch. While some preparation had been possible since the institute's founding in October of the previous year, scientific surveys of the former North American region had only recently begun, and new, unpredictable elements continued to emerge.

Amid this painstaking information-gathering and analysis, June arrived, and the scheduled date for the tabletop exercise was near. While organizing the data, another piece of breaking news arrived.

"Germany has invaded the Soviet Union!"

How would Britain respond to this?

Overwhelmed, several researchers collapsed from exhaustion. The tabletop exercise was postponed for recalculations.

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In the previous chapter, I made a significant error in the figures. The correct average depth is approximately 50 meters (46,62 meters). I sincerely apologize for this mistake.

The text has been corrected, and the content has been adjusted accordingly.

The next updates will be in three days, on the 16th, at 17:00 and 18:00.

- ほうこうおんち